election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 2:48 PM, 319 voters in 57 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 217,524 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 205,319 - 226,535). In addition, 335,411 mail-in ballots have already been returned, and -99,921 are still outstanding.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	2:48 PM	2485	c(`2.5%` = 2277)	c(`97.5%` = 2626)
02	2:48 PM	3804	c(`2.5%` = 3465)	c(`97.5%` = 4071)
03	2:48 PM	3532	c(`2.5%` = 3278)	c(`97.5%` = 3654)
04	2:48 PM	3381	c(`2.5%` = 3161)	c(`97.5%` = 3510)
05	2:48 PM	4863	c(`2.5%` = 4430)	c(`97.5%` = 5274)
06	2:48 PM	2085	c(`2.5%` = 1960)	c(`97.5%` = 2161)
07	2:48 PM	1878	c(`2.5%` = 1736)	c(`97.5%` = 2029)
08	2:48 PM	5409	c(`2.5%` = 4962)	c(`97.5%` = 5748)
09	2:48 PM	3612	c(`2.5%` = 3328)	c(`97.5%` = 3757)
10	2:48 PM	4987	c(`2.5%` = 4669)	c(`97.5%` = 5172)
11	2:48 PM	2325	c(`2.5%` = 2152)	c(`97.5%` = 2417)
12	2:48 PM	3663	c(`2.5%` = 3369)	c(`97.5%` = 3769)
13	2:48 PM	3439	c(`2.5%` = 3210)	c(`97.5%` = 3577)
14	2:48 PM	1263	c(`2.5%` = 1183)	c(`97.5%` = 1302)
15	2:48 PM	3288	c(`2.5%` = 2961)	c(`97.5%` = 3435)
16	2:48 PM	1953	c(`2.5%` = 1807)	c(`97.5%` = 2003)
17	2:48 PM	4298	c(`2.5%` = 4005)	c(`97.5%` = 4437)
18	2:48 PM	1987	c(`2.5%` = 1828)	c(`97.5%` = 2144)
19	2:48 PM	1801	c(`2.5%` = 1644)	c(`97.5%` = 1874)
20	2:48 PM	1210	c(`2.5%` = 1137)	c(`97.5%` = 1264)
21	2:48 PM	6594	c(`2.5%` = 6151)	c(`97.5%` = 6898)
22	2:48 PM	5134	c(`2.5%` = 4745)	c(`97.5%` = 5346)
23	2:48 PM	2502	c(`2.5%` = 2370)	c(`97.5%` = 2651)
24	2:48 PM	1856	c(`2.5%` = 1748)	c(`97.5%` = 1970)
25	2:48 PM	1862	c(`2.5%` = 1773)	c(`97.5%` = 1984)
26	2:48 PM	2610	c(`2.5%` = 2475)	c(`97.5%` = 2756)
27	2:48 PM	1833	c(`2.5%` = 1678)	c(`97.5%` = 1996)
28	2:48 PM	2133	c(`2.5%` = 1980)	c(`97.5%` = 2198)
29	2:48 PM	1823	c(`2.5%` = 1710)	c(`97.5%` = 1888)
30	2:48 PM	2608	c(`2.5%` = 2379)	c(`97.5%` = 2755)
31	2:48 PM	1925	c(`2.5%` = 1695)	c(`97.5%` = 2062)
32	2:48 PM	3093	c(`2.5%` = 2896)	c(`97.5%` = 3202)
33	2:48 PM	1994	c(`2.5%` = 1876)	c(`97.5%` = 2122)
34	2:48 PM	6442	c(`2.5%` = 6059)	c(`97.5%` = 6667)
35	2:48 PM	3533	c(`2.5%` = 3326)	c(`97.5%` = 3737)
36	2:48 PM	4572	c(`2.5%` = 4258)	c(`97.5%` = 4723)
37	2:48 PM	2079	c(`2.5%` = 1914)	c(`97.5%` = 2137)
38	2:48 PM	3043	c(`2.5%` = 2851)	c(`97.5%` = 3128)
39	2:48 PM	5259	c(`2.5%` = 4936)	c(`97.5%` = 5583)
40	2:48 PM	5482	c(`2.5%` = 5105)	c(`97.5%` = 5713)
41	2:48 PM	2616	c(`2.5%` = 2438)	c(`97.5%` = 2807)
42	2:48 PM	2792	c(`2.5%` = 2640)	c(`97.5%` = 2916)
43	2:48 PM	2467	c(`2.5%` = 2291)	c(`97.5%` = 2583)
44	2:48 PM	2292	c(`2.5%` = 2122)	c(`97.5%` = 2376)
45	2:48 PM	2476	c(`2.5%` = 2332)	c(`97.5%` = 2604)
46	2:48 PM	3701	c(`2.5%` = 3393)	c(`97.5%` = 3878)
47	2:48 PM	1043	c(`2.5%` = 966)	c(`97.5%` = 1084)
48	2:48 PM	2398	c(`2.5%` = 2230)	c(`97.5%` = 2517)
49	2:48 PM	3738	c(`2.5%` = 3533)	c(`97.5%` = 3895)
50	2:48 PM	5926	c(`2.5%` = 5484)	c(`97.5%` = 6181)
51	2:48 PM	3665	c(`2.5%` = 3390)	c(`97.5%` = 3790)
52	2:48 PM	4786	c(`2.5%` = 4410)	c(`97.5%` = 4961)
53	2:48 PM	2582	c(`2.5%` = 2437)	c(`97.5%` = 2716)
54	2:48 PM	1807	c(`2.5%` = 1695)	c(`97.5%` = 1940)
55	2:48 PM	3538	c(`2.5%` = 3303)	c(`97.5%` = 3760)
56	2:48 PM	4829	c(`2.5%` = 4535)	c(`97.5%` = 5102)
57	2:48 PM	3749	c(`2.5%` = 3540)	c(`97.5%` = 3962)
58	2:48 PM	6105	c(`2.5%` = 5751)	c(`97.5%` = 6454)
59	2:48 PM	3801	c(`2.5%` = 3568)	c(`97.5%` = 3893)
60	2:48 PM	3155	c(`2.5%` = 2945)	c(`97.5%` = 3266)
61	2:48 PM	3725	c(`2.5%` = 3477)	c(`97.5%` = 3879)
62	2:48 PM	2903	c(`2.5%` = 2729)	c(`97.5%` = 3066)
63	2:48 PM	3851	c(`2.5%` = 3642)	c(`97.5%` = 4029)
64	2:48 PM	2414	c(`2.5%` = 2271)	c(`97.5%` = 2545)
65	2:48 PM	3171	c(`2.5%` = 2998)	c(`97.5%` = 3358)
66	2:48 PM	6358	c(`2.5%` = 6036)	c(`97.5%` = 6666)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

1:48 PM	2127	115
1:04 PM	6623	76
1:35 PM	4820	67
10:54 AM	3930	62
7:13 AM	5224	4
11:42 AM	1502	122
10:51 AM	3632	58
7:19 AM	3704	2
12:10 PM	6020	79
7:46 AM	5001	11
8:36 AM	1315	25
10:53 AM	4508	33
11:42 AM	3009	79
10:43 AM	6507	103
7:20 AM	3411	3
12:37 PM	6213	65
10:40 AM	6608	103
12:36 PM	5604	46
7:24 AM	4202	3
11:34 AM	2229	113
7:27 AM	4909	9
11:15 AM	3414	95
9:27 AM	3201	29
2:15 PM	6608	179
11:00 AM	2311	47
1:13 PM	4007	102
12:29 PM	2818	61
2:35 PM	5628	100
11:48 AM	3926	44
7:49 AM	4104	9
8:15 AM	5515	16
8:57 AM	6221	20
12:33 PM	5114	74
8:38 AM	5706	47
9:49 AM	3007	85
11:36 AM	3601	49
10:50 AM	3921	97
2:48 PM	1904	63
7:55 AM	3602	10
9:48 AM	6204	49
8:52 AM	4619	76
1:49 PM	4111	109
2:12 PM	5417	57
1:32 PM	2513	40
2:13 PM	5702	148
12:29 PM	2521	23
9:25 AM	6406	63
10:04 AM	5823	80
2:16 PM	6127	128
2:43 PM	4203	96
12:40 PM	4701	54
9:53 AM	4009	65
7:28 AM	3525	3
9:49 AM	2306	38
12:25 PM	3007	99
2:28 PM	3209	90
12:57 PM	5315	73
2:36 PM	6636	184
11:02 AM	5625	73
11:18 AM	3114	77
9:00 AM	3438	36
7:38 AM	4610	8
11:09 AM	6223	48
8:58 AM	3716	25
7:48 AM	2114	14
10:14 AM	5128	92
7:44 AM	2916	6
12:41 PM	2407	61
10:42 AM	2405	41
10:23 AM	4506	57
8:51 AM	6510	43
1:23 PM	5519	94
7:27 AM	4618	4
2:48 PM	4003	164
1:07 PM	2917	68
8:07 AM	1212	21
10:47 AM	1112	63
9:25 AM	6120	57
10:52 AM	3712	46
10:14 AM	1316	65
8:11 AM	6510	20
10:07 AM	5013	83
7:56 AM	1513	18
9:11 AM	1907	51
9:51 AM	3217	39
1:51 PM	1205	188
7:58 AM	5007	14
7:58 AM	5227	22
9:23 AM	5809	58
7:24 AM	5118	7
1:15 PM	1502	161
8:29 AM	4017	15
8:45 AM	4815	28
2:41 PM	4308	135
10:13 AM	5117	33
12:29 PM	4106	39
7:24 AM	5225	8
1:13 PM	2103	80
9:01 AM	1223	53
7:22 AM	1003	5
10:24 AM	2911	46
9:46 AM	3519	48
9:18 AM	6521	32
8:51 AM	6117	36
2:23 PM	6308	135
12:01 PM	4208	56
1:57 PM	5606	153
2:37 PM	3225	152
10:08 AM	3208	32
8:34 AM	2008	11
12:45 PM	2002	45
1:02 PM	2132	79
2:04 PM	5128	158
1:09 PM	5634	67
8:20 AM	4913	11
9:52 AM	1602	43
7:40 AM	5409	4
12:05 PM	1216	88
8:00 AM	6208	11
8:11 AM	5117	9
8:04 AM	4403	10
12:49 PM	3911	23
10:08 AM	3101	29
8:40 AM	6108	33
10:00 AM	3717	36
2:22 PM	6316	124
10:40 AM	2007	65
9:28 AM	5802	28
9:44 AM	2520	25
2:40 PM	4106	65
10:59 AM	6207	67
9:58 AM	3406	75
11:15 AM	5611	42
10:51 AM	2201	121
9:13 AM	5719	38
9:08 AM	4904	49
8:37 AM	5908	43
1:17 PM	3531	66
11:02 AM	2121	51
9:16 AM	2316	38
12:14 PM	2114	94
7:57 AM	5807	9
10:19 AM	4221	27
2:36 PM	4032	104
1:58 PM	4204	69
7:26 AM	2620	1
8:14 AM	5401	14
2:20 PM	5616	88
1:33 PM	3413	132
11:58 AM	4312	38
1:24 PM	2812	97
8:05 AM	5702	19
9:17 AM	3116	95
9:51 AM	3531	41
1:41 PM	3009	144
7:49 AM	3119	5
2:22 PM	4023	78
8:42 AM	1910	37
10:55 AM	4120	56
10:00 AM	5920	29
1:31 PM	6628	110
1:22 PM	3111	63
1:15 PM	4207	58
11:57 AM	3720	42
2:39 PM	3423	166
8:16 AM	4015	11
12:54 PM	6630	93
10:32 AM	5309	29
11:36 AM	5030	89
10:24 AM	3108	30
11:37 AM	4009	79
10:51 AM	4304	54
8:56 AM	6409	28
7:51 AM	4002	7
7:34 AM	2307	4
7:03 AM	2319	1
7:18 AM	1007	2
9:20 AM	5028	67
11:58 AM	1907	68
9:29 AM	1516	68
1:42 PM	1013	151
12:59 PM	6001	47
7:25 AM	5404	2
8:59 AM	4704	17
9:49 AM	3404	57
1:11 PM	3818	118
12:23 PM	1316	69
11:36 AM	1117	44
1:47 PM	2810	101
7:42 AM	2134	15
8:54 AM	5223	55
2:35 PM	2907	93
10:09 AM	6311	129
11:14 AM	2618	37
9:36 AM	5405	48
8:46 AM	3316	16
9:39 AM	3323	36
7:04 AM	3522	1
11:59 AM	5221	29
8:41 AM	2226	41
7:41 AM	4203	6
9:17 AM	2710	22
9:34 AM	6224	35
1:44 PM	3529	56
7:52 AM	5611	8
8:45 AM	3219	32
11:24 AM	3111	52
9:12 AM	3631	30
12:19 PM	2306	42
1:44 PM	5826	105
11:44 AM	4218	62
1:04 PM	1618	105
9:33 AM	6503	39
11:18 AM	3111	50
2:16 PM	6625	114
9:27 AM	2118	51
7:49 AM	3103	6
7:25 AM	5115	6
9:39 AM	4417	41
1:14 PM	4036	49
10:10 AM	3929	43
7:09 AM	3222	2
2:09 PM	2812	115
10:16 AM	5702	76
7:57 AM	5804	15
12:25 PM	2321	91
9:20 AM	3432	42
12:50 PM	5625	85
2:03 PM	1902	84
2:11 PM	3118	173
9:04 AM	1309	41
1:22 PM	1113	60
11:06 AM	1409	43
10:10 AM	6638	69
8:32 AM	3529	16
7:44 AM	4043	6
1:56 PM	1408	15
10:58 AM	3407	77
2:30 PM	1728	102
9:22 AM	3804	60
8:27 AM	4510	10
11:34 AM	3718	68
8:27 AM	5005	46
11:22 AM	5906	48
1:59 PM	4214	124
12:14 PM	5417	34
1:36 PM	1603	94
10:30 AM	4048	70
10:09 AM	6012	76
2:12 PM	3318	37
12:00 PM	5119	102
9:29 AM	6213	46
8:22 AM	4115	21
8:55 AM	4907	45
7:49 AM	3402	14
2:33 PM	5515	101
7:58 AM	4408	10
8:50 AM	3004	25
12:34 PM	4910	95
12:03 PM	4601	91
2:14 PM	5702	137
1:42 PM	4101	50
12:36 PM	2508	56
2:11 PM	3418	139
9:30 AM	6606	65
1:39 PM	2228	73
7:51 AM	3924	17
10:09 AM	5006	83
2:23 PM	3619	124
12:44 PM	4323	37
9:24 AM	6114	36
2:36 PM	4115	135
8:30 AM	4115	32
10:31 AM	1707	114
9:21 AM	4214	56
7:55 AM	3105	8
9:38 AM	4115	67
8:07 AM	3504	12
9:42 AM	3310	41
10:41 AM	5639	45
12:24 PM	2125	89
11:27 AM	4815	56
2:33 PM	5023	118
2:31 PM	2505	104
2:41 PM	5825	146
11:38 AM	4306	60
9:56 AM	6517	53
8:23 AM	5803	25
10:01 AM	3401	49
12:32 PM	4029	52
8:54 AM	2709	12
1:05 PM	5512	71
8:33 AM	6615	36
2:16 PM	3808	151
12:20 PM	2130	113
2:12 PM	2144	118
7:33 AM	1308	5
8:09 AM	6318	16
8:50 AM	4012	23
11:36 AM	2501	34
1:37 PM	2125	130
9:55 AM	2320	44
10:25 AM	4033	25
12:00 PM	5721	59
1:30 PM	6204	72
1:48 PM	4021	56
7:58 AM	1617	13
11:48 AM	3427	65
7:34 AM	4604	5
10:15 AM	4713	39
10:32 AM	6604	49
8:31 AM	3311	19
12:12 PM	1719	69
1:43 PM	6311	213
9:37 AM	1815	33
9:29 AM	2520	21
8:11 AM	4522	14
12:56 PM	3428	58
9:14 AM	2915	35

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker